Unpopular Opinion: The Steelers drafting a QB every year until they find one is a bad idea

When the Pittsburgh Steelers are in the dreaded long offseason, there are plenty of ideas to debate. As part of the triumphant trio on the Steelers Preview podcast, I’ve been known to often give a “Dave answer“ to various things as I often like to argue both sides of an issue. With this in mind, a new weekly segment has been born… Unpopular opinion.

There are plenty of arguments both for and against the Pittsburgh Steelers that might not go along with the majority of fans. Oftentimes I believe in these arguments, while other times I simply like to pose a counter argument for ones that are taking it too much to the extreme. For this reason, I’m going to offer some points about the Pittsburgh Steelers that go against the general fan narrative, or at least how I have heard things.

Next up is an opinion about those with an interesting idea for how to find the Steeler next franchise quarterback…

The Steelers drafting a QB every year until they find one is a bad idea

It has been suggested by a significant portion of Steelers’ Nation that the best way for the Steelers to find their next franchise quarterback is to simply take a player in the draft every year until they hit the right person. In theory, this sounds like a bold yet encouraging strategy as thinking the next player that they draft at the position will be the next guy is quite naïve. But does simply throwing more darts at the board mean that they are more likely to hit the bull’s-eye? Or could they even be blocking themselves out of their own big hit?

First, I crunched some numbers. I know the suggestion by many are that the Steelers should take a mid-to-late-round quarterback when the situation doesn’t present itself for them to go higher. The example of Tom Brady being a sixth round pick is usually one that is brought up when it comes to taking a late round quarterback. So I decided to look up every quarterback drafted since 2000, the year Tom Brady was chosen, who was selected in the fourth round or later.

Using Pro Football Reference, I must first say that my total numbers of players could be a bit off as it only lists players who actually appeared in an NFL game. Being late round draft picks, I’m sure there are some quarterbacks who were drafted and didn’t appear in a game so make sure to keep this in mind when looking at the numbers.

To be a player who I feel would potentially be a franchise quarterback, I set the standard pretty low. I just looked for players who started 80 games at quarterback in that time. I picked 80 games because that would be starting 16 games, the number of games they played in the NFL up until 2021, for five seasons. I would hope a franchise quarterback would have more starts, but I simply set this as a minimum.

When looking at round four through seven, there are only seven quarterbacks drafted since 2000 who have 80 or more starts. In all, there’s been 118 quarterbacks taken in the fourth rounder later who have appeared in an NFL game since 2000. But to be fair, players drafted in the last five seasons don’t have the opportunity to even hit that number yet. So even taking out those 21 players, that’s still seven out of 97 players. I will say, out of those 21 I did not count, there are three who could potentially get there based on starting double-digit games so far in their career. Those three players are Brock Purdy, Sam Howell, and Aidan O’Connell. Whether or not you believe any of those three players is potentially a franchise quarterback is your call.

I then looked at the quarterbacks taken in the third round. Since 2000, only two quarterbacks have started 80 or more games. For those who are curious, they are Russell Wilson and Matt Schaub. There were 30 quarterbacks in all drafted in the third round since 2000, but five of them were in the last five seasons although none of them seem to be on track to be able to reach 80 starts in their career.

Since it doesn’t look too promising to be able to hit on a franchise quarterback in round three or later, let’s go ahead and group the first two rounds for one last look. Of the 96 quarterbacks taken since 2000 in the first or second round, 24 of them have started 80 games or more. There are 21 players drafted in the first or second round in the last five years, many of which could be on pace to reach this number. But since we don’t know, it’s probably safer to say that 24 out of 75 quarterbacks reached this mark.

But let me also put this mark in perspective. Some of the players that fit the criteria might not be ones that fans would consider a franchise quarterback. Players such as Derek Carr, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, and Baker Mayfield are on the list. This list even includes Carson Wentz and James Winston. So even getting to 80 starts in the NFL still doesn’t mean it was necessarily a franchise player.

After looking at the odds of hitting on a quarterback, it could be really sad thinking about things going forward. Maybe because it’s so hard to do the Steelers need to take a shot often. While I could see where someone could twist the numbers in that way, here’s the other issue…

How are teams thoroughly evaluating a quarterback if they’re adding a new one to develop every year?

If the Steelers are taking a quarterback every draft, regardless of what round they are selected, they are going to run out of roster space before players even reach the end of their rookie deal. Also, if the Steelers take a third round quarterback this year, it might decrease the likelihood of them taking one in the first round next year if they think they might have something only to find out they ultimately do not.

The bottom line is, it’s not a good idea to take a quarterback every year. For all you know, not giving one player time to show their worth could actually have the right guy being sent out the door before an accurate evaluation could occur.

Just think if the Patriots were drafting a quarterback every year and they would have let Tom Brady go after that first season, or if Drew Bledsoe wouldn’t have gotten hurt in 2001 and the Patriots didn’t know what they had in Brady before moving on. Even if he went on to have half the career he finished with, it would have looked foolish.

One thing I think the Steelers should do is look into drafting a quarterback every year until they find the right guy. They need to do their due diligence on all these players every year. They should dig deep and see if the right guy is there. But simply because they’re looking at quarterbacks doesn’t mean they should take one, especially if they are going to reach for him. Sometimes doing their due diligence needs to be an answer of “he’s not for us“ and continue to move on.

To wrap it all up, the Steelers need to have the possibility of drafting a quarterback in any round in every draft until they find the next guy. But actually pulling the trigger every year is going to make for a much more difficult situation in accurately evaluating what they have to work with.

To hear the latest Unpopular Opinion podcast, check it out in the player below. Be sure to check back for this podcast every Sunday morning during the Steelers offseason.