The tale of the QBR tape for the passers linked to the Steelers
Last year, the Steelers quarterback room was handled like the day old bread at the bakery, out with the old and in with the new. There could potentially be a repeat of that same turnover this year. Every signal caller that could possibly be on the move this offseason shoots to the top of the betting line to be signed by Pittsburgh, no matter how old, stale, and crusty they might be.
They all come with varying costs and trade hits, and with the Steelers having a roster that needs replenishing not only at multiple positions, but also some doubling down for depth, the prevailing wisdom says whoever is the cheapest option is also the best option. This team finds itself in a contradiction of development. One could argue that it has the start of a good core, and also that it is lacking in both talent, depth, and aging fast in some areas. The NFL strives for parity, so in theory every team should just be one great QB away from being a true contender, but no one feels that way about the organization right now.
That made me wonder if the main priority is cost, or lack thereof, what is the QBR rating of the names that have been associated with the team, comparably speaking. That in turn made me wonder what exactly makes up the QBR rating, for those of us that are acronym deficient. The NFL derives their QBR rating from this formula per Pro Football Reference:
The NFL passer rating formula ranges on a scale from 0 to 158.3 based on completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt.
Fair enough. In a country where freezing happens at 32 degrees and boiling occurs at 212 degrees, why would any of us expect a nice round number to be at the top of the scale? So, now we are all aware of how the NFL gets to their weird scale of rating. This info made me wonder how the 2024 season rankings correlated to actual performance and the good old eye test. A quick search revealed the two players tied for first place with a QBR of 77.3 percent are Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, while the bottom two were Gardner Minshew with 38.1 percent and Will Levis with 27.8 percent. Yikes.
That seems accurate enough for me. It’s definitely more accurate than a Will Levis pass, anyway. With that, here is the percentage and the NLF rank of every QB that has been linked as potential signal callers for the Steelers this year, whether it was realistic or not.
- Matthew Stafford – QBR rating 64.7 – 12th
- Sam Darnold – QBR rating 60.4 – 14th
- Trevor Lawrence – QBR rating 59.5 – 16th
- Geno Smith – QBR rating 53.8 – 21st
- Russell Wilson – QBR rating 51.3 – 22nd
- Justin Fields – QBR rating 50.8 – 23rd
- Aaron Rodgers – QBR 48.0 – 26th
- Daniel Jones – QBR 47.8 – 27th
Of course, a rating based on percentages never tells the entire story, but those numbers track fairly closely with the expectations of where a knowledgeable watcher of football would place them. Going by both monetary and draft capital costs, both Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold, and Trevor Lawrence should immediately fall off this list. I’m not sure they could maintain that rating in Pittsburgh anyway, given the state of the line and their mobility.
Dipping below 50 percent is a one way ticket to the bottom of the NFL cellar dwellers, and as much as we all lament the .500 winning percentage seasons, Steelers Nation would collectively lose their ever-loving minds if suddenly the team were in that two to four win range for a season. That should lop Aaron Rodgers and Daniel Jones off the tree like the dried up dead branches that they are.
That leaves us with Geno Smith, Russell Wilson, and Justin Fields. Seattle would require some kind of cost for trade, so no to Geno. The Steelers need all the draft capital they can get, not less. One would surmise that Russell Wilson would be more expensive than Justin Fields, is far older, and needs a step ladder to see over the center and guards. Russ has nowhere to go but down with each additional season.
Much like Chevy Chase stuck in the round-about in European Vacation, we are right back where we started in most of our minds. Justin Fields is the best option for this coming season. He has the legs to bail him out when the pass blocking breaks down, as is to be expected with Broderick Jones (hopefully) getting the chance to prove himself at left tackle and Troy Fautanu getting a mulligan do-over at his rookie season on the opposite side. He can run the RPO offense, unlike most of the guys on this list, who would be lucky to outrun me at this point in a 40 yard dash. Fields should not be crazy expensive, will not cost draft picks, has proven himself to be a drama free teammate, and is open to coaching.
The Steelers would be wise to do everything in their efforts to lock Fields down before too many other teams come calling with offers. Fields has the least cost with the most upside, and his QBR rating of 50.8 percent is right in line with Tomlin’s standard of the standard – I kid, I kid. There is a contingent of the fan base wishing for a season of disaster in order to get a high pick but take a look at the teams that draft that high, and it’s the same list over and over. The top QB picks rarely hit. Also, look at how the morale destroyed the team last year when that losing streak happened. Losing begets more losing, and once an organization starts down that path, it’s hard to reverse it. Good organizations build the team first, then aggressively go after their guy when the time is right.
There is no one on this list that will take the Steelers to a division round playoff appearance. As good as Matthew Stafford’s arm talent is, it will be hard to complete passes when his nameplate is flat on the turf at Acrisure Stadium. We saw the floor of what Justin Fields can be last season in limited play as he contended with an offense not designed for him, and it was good enough to compete on a week to week basis. This year, it’s time to load up the coffers and build this roster, let the inexperienced line get some much needed time in-stadium as one unit, and see where the year takes us. If Fields is able to hit his ceiling, the team can grow in both confidence and morale, leaving them ready to add a superstar to become real contenders. Perhaps Justin Fields can be that guy given enough support and good coaching. Philly has proven it can be done with a smart and steady QB instead of a superhero level video game passer. Pittsburgh has been trying to model themselves in the same image, and that only happens when the team is built first.
Good case made for Fields. I’m in that camp too. Many say that because the 2025 QB draft class is so ho-hum, to which I agree, that the Steelers should draft one in 2026, which is “expected” (ahem) to have a better class.
But what people don’t say is how challenging that is, because all the other teams not getting one in 2025, or drafting one in 2025 and finding they aren’t the answer, will also be chomping at the bit to draft one in 2026. Meaning lots of competition for one, and that means the price to move up will be high.
Door 1 – So if the team picks 18th in 2026, do you give away a few firsts and whatever else to get into the top 5? Or more than that to get to 2 or 3? Is it worth it? That answer is in hindsight only. It’s risky. Because if you miss, you set the roster back a few years.
Door 2 – Does it make sense to draft one in Rd 3 or 4 serially for a few years? Yes, the odds are long, but it’s plausible strategy. Without the crazy big risk as with moving up from 18 to 2.
Door 3 – One can also lay low, not go after expensive FAs, and “allow” the team to finish 6-11 to better get in sniffing distance of the top 3.
I get it. It’s easy to poke holes in any strategy. That’s because there are no good answers. If you were the majority owner, what would you do?
I think I would go with door 1, but only if the I was positively in love with the guy I’m going after. If there were any doubts or having to settle for someone not quite right, then there would need to be some serious rethinking.
Great data. Thank you. It does a good job of concretely eliminating the qb’s that my gut is concerned about seeing in a Steelers uniform for all the reasons you cited.
My only response is that so many keep assuming that Wilson will be more expensive than Fields. Each year in FA, fans and pundits are repeatedly surprised at the expense or inexpense of various FA’s. I’m not sure we can really say how this is going to play out with these two just yet.
I would also point out that if Fields had to run the gauntlet that Wilson ran in those final 5 games, I believe quite firmly his qbr would have suffered immensely. Considering he was only .8 above 50, I think there’s a high probability he’d be among your under 50 “one way ticket to the bottom of the NFL cellar dwellers” at this point. Were he to have started, I don’t believe Fields wins all the games Wilson won and, in fact, performs much worse. I also think Wilson’s QBR would have gotten a bump higher had he started the much easier first 6 of the season. For instance, had he started, I think Wilson beats Dallas handily and would have a much cleaner performance against the Raiders.
Having said all of that, I honestly would be fine if we do sign Fields instead of Wilson. But I’m not altogether sold that he’s that much better of an option even if he does save a good deal of money (which, again, I’m not sure will be the case just yet). I think the deafening buzz circulating about him being an overall better qb, however, may just crank up his market higher than we realize.
Those are great points. His ratings almost certainly would have gone down given how the schedule went, and he could be getting some offers that will drive up his price point. Makes me glad I’m not in charge right now, because none of the options for this year seem all that great.
Totally agree and have been banging the drum for Fields since before the playoffs. Also in Fields favor is that he already knows the playbook, and his teammates.
Teams simply don’t allow franchise QBs to leave. That Matthew Stafford is available in a trade speaks a lot as to what the Rams think about his sustainability. The same can be said for any of the QBs in the above list. They are available for a reason. Franchise QBs can only be drafted which, of course, is an imperfect exercise. It’s still the only way, though, and the Steelers have to do it.