3 reasonable and 3 unreasonable expectations of the Steelers first round draft pick
On the most recent episode of the Pittsburgh Standard Time podcast, Greg Benevent and I were attempting to answer how we would react if the Steelers went in an unexpected route in the first round of the 2025 NFL draft in order to properly answer the question, we first needed to define what we expected the Steelers to do with their first pick in order to come up with scenarios of the unexpected.
In all, we came up with three main scenarios of what we expect the Steelers to do in the upcoming draft. They are as follows:
Having an unexpected player fall to them
If there’s a player who is not expected to be available for the Steelers when they’re on the clock at pick 21 but somehow they are still on the board, if the Steelers add such a player, regardless of position, we believe that it would be reasonable for them to make the selection. The example that came to mind for both of us was when the Steelers drafted David DeCastro with the 24th pick in the first round in 2012after he was not expected to be there when they were on the clock. Going back a couple decades, Rod Woodson would also be a player who would fit into this category. If the Steelers had an opportunity to take someone who was not really on the radar of may simply because they weren’t supposed to be there, that would not be an unexpected outcome.
Trading back to get more draft capital
Although this scenario is difficult, making it less likely than others, it doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be expected. There are many who follow the Steelers who would love for them to move back in the first round and gain more draft capital, especially since they don’t have a second round pick due to the DK Metcalf trade. This would not be shocking at all if this scenario were to occur, but it also requires cooperation from another NFL team willing to be a partner. Even though we both felt that this outcome, although desirable, is not going to be easy to pull off, it didn’t mean it would fall into the realm of unexpected.
Taking the best Defensive Tackle available
When it comes to the Steelers staying at 21 and the draft falling pretty much how everyone expects it, our overwhelming feeling is the Steelers will be taking the best defensive tackle available. If there isn’t one, then things did not go as expected ahead of them. Although this doesn’t seem to be the general narrative of the national media, especially those doing mock drafts as it has been difficult to find ones that have the Steelers taking a defensive tackle, those plugged into the Steelers a little more intently realize this is a big need. Yes, they could address this position later and still get the desired outcome. Heck, if it’s really about a nose tackle they could get one in the sixth round that more than adequately does the job for as few snaps as they are on the field. But if the Steelers are truly looking to have a major improvement at the position, and not just filling it out with younger bodies that are about the same caliber, then they would need to go bigger at the position and spend a first round pick.
Now that the expectations have been set, Greg and I came up with three different scenarios, whether they are the most likely scenarios or not, of things not going as expected for the Steelers in the first round of the 2025 NFL draft. After breaking down each, I also included a brief reaction that we would anticipate us having should this be the case.
Trading up in the first round
This doesn’t seem to be the year that this would work out for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Not having a second round pick makes it difficult for the Steelers to give up more assets in order to move. It’s still not impossible for them to do so, and doing so means they need to find a transcendent player much like they did in 2003 with Troy Polamalu, but it’s much harder to do when you don’t have as many pieces to work with. Yes, the Steelers could use the anticipation of having compensatory picks in next year‘s draft to trade next year‘s picks that they already have established in order to make a move this year, but that’s not the best value as generally it takes one round earlier in next year‘s draft to equal the value it would be in this year‘s draft. For this reason, unless they get a great deal and they’re doing it for a franchise-changing player, this feels like an unexpected scenario for 2025.
Reaction: It better be worth it!
Reaching for a quarterback
Although this category could have a scenario where it’s combined with the one mentioned of the Steelers trading up, it’s important to talk about it itself. To me, unless the player’s last name is Ward, there’s not a quarterback I would like to see the Steelers move up to get. I’m also ready to place a significant wager on Ward being taken first overall and that’s not something the Steelers should even be contemplating trading up to do. If the Steelers are holding with their pick at 21, the only quarterback I feel that wouldn’t be a reach at that point would be Sanders. Even if the Steelers passed on him at that point if he fell that far, I would not have a problem with it. All other quarterbacks I would consider being a reach. I know people are really enamored with Jaxson Dart, but three months ago he was a player who it wasn’t sure if he would be in the third round or the fourth round. He hasn’t played a game since that time and has skyrocketed it up people’s boards mainly filling the vacuum of there being no other quarterbacks who seem worthy. The Steelers made this mistake recently of taking a quarterback who was only projected to be there when they picked in the first round simply because the position is of such value that players with some pretty significant flaws can be pushed way up draft boards. The Steelers don’t want to fall into the trap of another miss in the first round of a quarterback in a very weak quarterback draft. Sometimes things just don’t lineup for it to be the year to get the guy at that position in round one, but taking one later isn’t a bad idea.
Reaction: Please, no.
Taking an average player at an unexpected position
I was trying to summarize this in as few words as possible so I use the word ‘average.’ What I mean by this is taking a player ranked in the 20s or worse at pick 21 that is a position that isn’t expected. What positions do I mean? To give a couple examples on defense would be outside linebacker, inside linebacker, and maybe safety if it’s not one of the top ones. On offense it would be something like a tight end or going offensive tackle in the first round for the third year in a row. These are just some examples and some other positions could be added to this list. In other words, there are a few positions that Steelers fans expect them to take in their first three or four selections of this draft. Grabbing a position in the first round that wasn’t on that list would be unexpected, especially if it’s not a player that was highly ranked but ended up being available as mentioned before. Although this wouldn’t be what Steelers fans would hope for going into the draft, it also wouldn’t be the worst unexpected result imaginable. In fact, given enough time and breakdown, the pick might even start to make some sense despite being unexpected.
Reaction: I can see what they were thinking…
To hear a more detailed explanation to these scenarios, check out the most recent episode of Pittsburgh Standard Time below:
